In preparation for the CA of the Future panel discussion that I shall be part of on 2 December, I decided to publish a two-part series on LinkedIn on “AI Development by 2030” and “Increased Life Expectancy by 2050”.
I will make use of scenarios to explore the various plausible futures relating to the two topics. The aim behind scenarios is to generate an orientation regarding future developments through an observation of certain relevant key factors. Three things are to be noted in the process (Kosow & Gabner, 2008):
a) Scenarios are not a comprehensive image of the future but rather an array of plausible futures.
b) Scenarios allow the selection and combination of key factors with regard to a future time horizon as a construct. That is, certain factors and events are deliberately taken to be relevant or are ignored in the light of certain assumptions.
c) Connected with this is the fact that every scenario construct is built on assumptions about how the future might one day look based on the orientation that certain trends might take, with certain developments remaining constant and others changing over the course of time.
The series on these two topics will follow the following format: An introduction will be posted to provide context to the topic, followed by a short summary of the two factors considered in the various scenarios using Clem Santer’s game board method. Based on the game board method, four scenarios will be created that will be communicated by means of four stories, accompanied by animations prepared by Duncan Stewart to provide further interpretation to the stories.
Declaration: The series is based on my coursework submissions towards my Master’s Degree in Future Studies at the University of Stellenbosch.
Kosow, H., & Gabner, R. (2008). Methods of future and scenario analysis. Bonn: German Development Institute (DIE).